It’s a safe bet that the annual report of the HCC will be closely scrutinized. This document, published by an independent body of thirteen experts, Tuesday, June 29, is the last of a five-year period and will therefore influence the assessment of government climate policies. It appears, moreover, in the context of legal wrangling: the decisions of the Council of State and the Administrative Court of Paris, which judge the state “Climate lax” And the ‘defective deficiency’, imminent.
After two previous annual reports squashed government action, the third version that this structure created at the end of 2018 has produced is still tough. Although a “Further reducing emissions” At the national level and in most regions, “Current efforts are insufficient to ensure that the objectives are achieved.” Climate change for 2030, say specialists in climate, economics, agronomy, and energy transition. Once again, France is making progress, but not fast enough if it is to achieve the goals it has set for itself: carbon neutrality by 2050 and a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990.
The rate of reduction in emissions increased slightly in 2019 (- 1.9% in one year), which is more than the target set for that year. In 2020, emissions could have fallen by 9%, according to preliminary estimates. However, this unprecedented decline is not related to structural changes, but rather to the Covid-19 pandemic, which has reduced economic activity, as well as a winter that Météo-France has ranked the hottest since 1900. Au worldwide, The International Energy Agency expects a 5% recovery in emissions in 2021.
A drastic reduction is planned in the medium term
Above all, France has not yet accelerated due to ‘accumulated delay’. The annual rate of emission reduction should actually double, reaching at least 3% by 2021 and 3.3% on average over the period from 2024 to 2028, warns the Higher Council for Childhood. “We are not in our nails, especially because the government has postponed part of the effort to a later time.”, recalls Corinne Le Kerry, a climate scientist at Britain’s University of East Anglia, who chairs the HCC. The government failed to meet its 2015-2018 targets and has already raised carbon budgets – emissions ceilings – for 2019-2023, allowing itself to pollute more in the short term, but making it necessary to reduce discharges. more radically in the medium term.
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